Dual-burden sites by constituency party (descriptive)
Share of sites located in London
Dual-burden sites by constituency party (descriptive)
24 of the 49 dual-burden sites are in London. Allowing for region, the link with Labour-held seats is about half as strong as the raw figure suggests.
Not included in the Community Planning Alliance version of this series.
Where the dual-burden sites are
A dual-burden site is in the most deprived 30% of England on overall deprivation and on environmental quality (entry 12). 24 of the 49 (49.0%) are in London, against 33 of the other 603 sites (5.5%). All 24 are in Labour-held constituencies.
43 of the 49 dual-burden sites (87.8%) are in Labour-held constituencies, against 41.6% of the other 603 sites. The raw odds ratio is 10.05 (95% CI 4.21–23.97), Fisher p = 1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰. That raw figure mixes party with place:
- Allowing for region, the odds ratio is about 5 (95% CI 1.9–13.7).
- Allowing for region and the Office for National Statistics rural–urban classification (2011), it is 4.38 (95% CI 1.60–11.96, p = 0.004).
- Within London all 24 dual-burden sites are in Labour-held seats; outside London the odds ratio is 4.75 (p = 0.0006).
All 652 sites by party
Share of the 652 contested sites by party of the sitting MP (September 2026):
| Party of sitting MP | Sites | Share of sites | England seats (July 2024) | Share of seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour / Co-operative | 294 | 45.1% | 347 | 63.9% |
| Conservative | 215 | 33.0% | 116 | 21.4% |
| Liberal Democrat | 114 | 17.5% | 65 | 12.0% |
| Reform UK | 9 | 1.4% | 5 | 0.9% |
| Green | 8 | 1.2% | 4 | 0.7% |
| Independents and Speaker | 12 | 1.8% | 6 | 1.1% |
England has 543 seats; the seat counts are the July 2024 general-election result, and the independents and Speaker figure is the remainder after the five parties on the Commons results page. Sites are by the party of the sitting MP in September 2026, so later by-elections and defections are not allowed for. An earlier version compared the 852-site harvest with UK-wide seats and has been withdrawn. Conservative-held seats hold 8.2% of the dual-burden sites against 35.0% of the rest; Liberal Democrat seats hold none against 18.9%.
What it doesn’t show
This is descriptive geography. It says nothing about partisan motivation, and the thesis makes no such claim. The dual-burden definition does not show that the burdens make outcomes worse; it shows that they co-occur. Party is the sitting MP’s party as recorded at enrichment in September 2026, against the post-July 2024 House of Commons.
Revised 12 November 2026: Now leads with London (24 of 49 dual-burden sites) and the region-adjusted odds ratio (about 5). The party table now covers the 652 sites, not the 852 harvest. Marked as not part of the Community Planning Alliance version.
Corrected again 12 November 2026 after a check of the data pipeline: added the official rural–urban classification and the England seat shares.
Evidence type: Association. Source: Manuscript ch. 11.1–11.2, appendix A.2. No claim in this series is causal.